The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has an initiative called the Theory of Mind program. This effort is designed to give national security decision-makers the ability to model, simulate, and ultimately anticipate the intentions and behaviors of adversaries using a combination of advanced algorithms and human expertise.
At its core, the program aims to:
Build algorithmic models that “decompose” adversary strategies into elemental behaviors.
Use massive data—signals intelligence, open-source information, even social media—to create high-fidelity “avatars” of enemy decision-makers.
Simulate possible responses to a range of U.S. and allied actions, exploring which ones best deter, incentivize, or nudge adversaries toward preferred outcomes.
Integrate insights from psychological profiling and machine learning to continually update these models as real-world conditions shift.
The promise is profound: a system that doesn’t just predict what an adversary might do, but actively guides policymakers toward courses of action that shape the adversary’s decision calculus—minimizing escalation and maximizing U.S. strategic advantage.
DARPA’s Theory of Mind program fundamentally changes how conflicts are managed. Decision-makers can run gaming scenarios at unprecedented detail and speed, customizing incentives or deterrents tailored to both cultural and individual psychologies. Risks of unintended escalation might be sharply reduced, while opportunities to “push the line” without crossing it become clearer.
Theory of Mind Warfare Turned on the American Public in 2020
The same tools originally designed for military use were later deployed against the American (and global) public in 2020
AI-powered behavioral analytics, inspired by military-grade “theory of mind” models, were strategically employed during the COVID-19 pandemic to not just inform but actively shape public perception, sentiment, and compliance—creating a continuous feedback loop between government actions and public psychology. These systems quietly moved the world’s response from reactive to adaptive, fundamentally influencing how populations experienced and responded to the scamdemic.
How These Systems Shaped Public Minds
1. Real-Time Sentiment Analysis and Information Targeting AI-powered platforms actively monitored social media, news, and digital conversations to track shifts in public mood, anxieties, and resistance to emerging health policies. These tools analyzed tone, emotional context, and response patterns following government announcements, often providing immediate feedback to policymakers on how their messaging was being received.
2. Tailored Messaging and Adaptive Communication Insights from these platforms allowed authorities to:
Refine government communication strategies
Push "approved" narratives to counter "misinformation"
Adjust messaging in real time to allay public fears, address misconceptions, or reinforce confidence in health measures such as lockdowns or vaccines
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3. Behavioral Nudges and Targeted Interventions. Governments, aided by behavioral insights teams and AI analysts, designed "nudge" interventions—such as targeted text reminders, default scheduling of vaccine appointments, and personalized risk feedback—to increase uptake of desired behaviors. Rapid A/B testing determined which messages or policy tweaks worked best for specific populations.
4. Feedback Loops for Policy Calibration. Behavioral and sentiment data were continuously fed back into policy decision-making. If public adherence waned or opposition spiked (visible through sentiment tracking), messaging and interventions could be swiftly recalibrated to regain support or mitigate disinformation spikes.
5. Data-Driven Misinformation Management. AI-driven platforms scanned for and flagged viral misinformation. Rapid response teams could then deploy counter-messaging or media campaigns—often through the same platforms—using knowledge of which narratives resonated with hesitant demographics.
Covid Was Just the Beginning: The Theory of Mind at Work in Recent Theaters of War
Given the ambition of such strategic modeling, it’s worth asking whether this kind of “hyper-rational,” AI-enabled approach helps explain what we’ve seen in several recent, high-stakes military theaters.
The Pager Attack and Decapitation of Hezbollah’s Leadership
What Happened: In September 2024, thousands of pagers distributed to Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon and Syria exploded nearly simultaneously. The devices, covertly manufactured and seeded by Israel through a shell company, had been rigged with miniature explosives. The result: dozens killed or wounded—mostly Hezbollah operatives, but also some civilians—crippling the group’s command structure and sowing panic throughout its ranks.
Fit with Theory of Mind: This operation demonstrates the power of deep adversary modeling. Israeli intelligence anticipated Hezbollah would switch to “low-tech” communications to evade modern surveillance. By predicting both the technological pivot and its psychological underpinnings, Israel was able to seed and trigger a devastating attack at a moment of maximum vulnerability—an almost textbook application of an algorithmic Theory of Mind approach. It wasn’t just about killing leaders; it was about destabilizing the group’s sense of security, disrupting its decision-making networks, and shaping its strategies long-term.
Israel’s Operation Red Wedding & Operation Narnia: The 2025 Strikes on Iran
What Happened: The Israeli attack that kicked off the 12-day war with Iran in June 2025 stands as one of the most dramatic and meticulously orchestrated military operations in recent Middle East history. This surprise assault was codenamed Operation Red Wedding (targeting Iran's top military leadership) and Operation Narnia (targeting nuclear scientists), both designed to deliver a strategic shock to Iran’s command, control, and nuclear capabilities.
In the early hours of June 13, 2025, Israel launched intensive airstrikes and covert operations inside Iran. Leveraging deep intelligence penetration, Israeli operatives lured over 30 of Iran’s top military leaders—including Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force—into a fortified underground bunker in Tehran, where they were killed with precision strikes. Simultaneously, Israeli forces targeted Iran’s nuclear program by assassinating at least nine senior nuclear scientists and striking several critical sites. The initial waves consisted of over 200 strike sorties and more than 330 munitions used against nearly 100 high-priority targets, decapitating Iran’s military leadership and significantly damaging its nuclear infrastructure.
The aftermath included at least 1,100 Iranian dead (over 30 senior commanders and 11 nuclear scientists), thousands wounded, massive damage to nuclear and missile facilities, and extensive civilian displacement. The algo must have hiccupped, because Iran didn’t collapse, they fought back.
Iran’s retaliation included over 550 ballistic missiles and 1,000 suicide drones fired at Israel, bringing about a wide regional escalation, but the AI system gained control over the situation likely directing US involvement and ultimately stopping short of all-out open war.
Fit with Theory of Mind: This operation reflects detailed adversary modeling and scenario simulation. Israel orchestrated a complex deception to gather Iranian leadership, carefully timed simultaneous strikes, and targeted high-value assets. The approach failed to correctly anticipate Iranian responses, but sought to degrade capabilities and leveraged psychological impact to magnify the strategic effect.
This was an operation not only of military power, but of insight into adversary psychology and escalation management—embodying the goals and tools of Theory of Mind-style strategy. The decapitation plan failed, but the AI driven system kept working on the problem until a satisfactory resolution was achieved, “The Twelve Day War” was over.
Operation Spiderweb: Ukraine’s Drone Assault on Russia’s Bomber Fleet
What Happened: Operation Spiderweb was an unprecedented Ukrainian covert operation that dramatically changed modern warfare by targeting Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. On June 1, 2025, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) launched the largest drone attack of the war against Russian airbases deep inside Russian territory—reaching as far as Siberia. Over 18 months, Ukrainian operatives smuggled 117 FPV (first-person view) drones into Russia, hiding them atop trucks near key airfields, where they were remotely activated for the attack.
Targets included airbases at Belaya, Dyagilevo, Ivanovo Severny, Olenya, and Ukrainka. At least 41 Russian military aircraft—Tu-160, Tu-95, Tu-22M bombers, and A-50 Airborne Early Warning aircraft—were claimed damaged or destroyed. The strikes severely impacted about one-third of Russia's cruise missile carrier fleet and forced Moscow to disperse its remaining bombers, exposing a previously assumed safe strategic asset and dealing a psychological and operational blow to Russia.
Fit with Theory of Mind: Operation Spiderweb exemplified adversary modeling and calculated escalation management. Ukrainian planners anticipated the psychological, strategic, and logistical ramifications of attacking these high-value targets—carefully avoiding nuclear escalation. By choosing the fleet’s means of launch (aircraft and support assets) rather than command centers or nuclear warheads, the operation demonstrated deep understanding of Russian red lines and risk thresholds. This is precisely the kind of strategic, “mind-reading” planning that DARPA’s Theory of Mind program envisions: leveraging intelligence and simulation to shape adversary perceptions, limit escalation, and achieve operational surprise.
The events in Lebanon, Iran, Russia, and in our own countries suggest that today’s “gray zone” warfare is increasingly being shaped by decision-makers armed with unprecedented, algorithmic insight into adversary psychology and strategy—the very vision that DARPA’s Theory of Mind program is bringing to the fore.
These are not just wars of bombs and bullets, but of information, perception, and calculated influence—run through a cybernetic loop of prediction, adaptation, and real-time feedback.
THIS IS WHAT MODERN WARFARE LOOKS LIKE
The United States and its allies have clearly adopted the new "Theory of Mind" model of warfare not merely as a technological leap, but as a strategic necessity. No kinetic action could have moved the American public the way the covid psychological operations did. And in the conflict with Russia, traditional methods of waging war could easily result in total nuclear war. In other cases, our conventional systems alone don't provide us with the technological supremacy they once did.
The US is seeking supremacy elsewhere - algorithmic adversary modeling, predictive analytics, and adaptive scenario simulation to anticipate, shape, and, if necessary, outmaneuver opponents in political and military "gray zones" as well as open conflict.
Theory of Mind Warfare Advantages
Pace & Complexity: Modern battlefields blend information, cyber, economic, and kinetic operations. AI-driven systems offer an edge in parsing this complexity and accelerating the decision loop, enabling more adaptive and precise responses—far faster than traditional command structures alone can manage.
Red Line Management: As conflicts brush up against escalation thresholds (nuclear, regional, or domestic-political), decision-makers must test boundaries without inadvertently crossing them. Predictive tools allow strategists to simulate outcomes, calibrate messaging, and “push the line” while minimizing catastrophic missteps.
Deterrence & Shaping: The aim is less about destruction and more about influencing adversaries’ perceptions, decision timelines, and threat assessments—using information dominance and rapid feedback to keep the upper hand.
War? What War?: Perhaps best of all, Theory of the Mind warfare leaves the adversary in a state of uncertainty. If Americans knew FOR SURE we were under attack and BY WHOM during the Covid hysteria, how would we have responded? Even Russia, despite red lines being crossed repeatedly, still considers itself not at war.
The New Weapons of Warfare
We are seeing the emergence of military ecosystems where software platforms like those developed by Palantir and defense partners serve as digital backbones for the DARPA "theory of mind" concept.
The company leading this new weapons system revolution is Palantir. Their Maven system has been deployed by the IDF and is known to have been used in Gaza. In all likelihood, it was used in Lebanon and Iran as well.
Palantir's Maven integrates satellite imagery, geolocation, communications intercepts, and other sensor data into a unified analysis platform. It enables real-time adversary modeling, target selection, and campaign simulation—crucially, using AI to predict responses and ripple effects well beyond the immediate area of operations.
During the PLANDEMIC Palantir’s Gotham and Foundry platforms were vital in integrating demographic, health, and behavioral data for agencies like the CDC, providing not only epidemiological tracking but also feedback on the public’s response to evolving guidelines and restrictions.
Since Trump came into office, the DoD doubled its contract with Palantir to nearly $1.3b. ICE signed a deal with Palantir to develop a real-time platform for tracking migrants inside the US. Palantir also signed deals with DHS, Social Security Administration, and the IRS to centralize data platforms and expand Palantir Foundry's use.
Where's this all going?
And most important, Are we still the adversary?
Thanks for this dense description of DARPA behavior-influencing. Maybe people in other countries are different, but Americans are truly brainwashed. Their responses on all issues are reflexive and seemingly "programed"--thanks to schooling, media propaganda, cultural collectivism, and so forth. The programed attitudes of the vast majority used to astonish me, but they've programed astonishment out of my mindset. Herding Americans around is so easy, about as easy as eating birthday cake and ice cream. The herders enjoy their sport.
80% of everything today is bullshit. 20% of the remainder is bs too.
Great article as always. I think we are either watching the collapse of western civiliazation and neo-fuedalism being installed. The more that I look at the digital cages we are being locked in the more I fear for my kids. Not sure what the solution is? Except producing more of my own food on our small homestead her in Idaho. Wish I could convince my wife to move to Central or South America. My concern about moving is in a real emergency how would the natives treat a foreigners.