“Our human actions and reactions are not rooted in statistical data but are determined instead by emotions and sentiments — narratives drive our behaviour.” — Klaus Schwab, Covid-19: The Great Reset, p. 246

By now, most of us recognize that all media is a battle space in the information war. We see competing narratives and grab on to the one that feels like the truth. But in recent years, our media feeds have been flooded with narrative — so much so that it’s very hard to even know what’s real. And that’s the point. Something has changed. Rather than fight for narrative control, all narratives have been weaponized. Narrative itself is a form of control.

Humans thrive in narrative. Some hypothesize that narratives — shared stories — are a key evolutionary and developmental trait of humans. With shared stories we can cooperate across space and time.

When we encounter a new situation or behavior, we naturally ask ourselves “why is this happening?” We have a thirst for narrative. When there is a narrative gap — when something doesn’t make sense — we feel a need for a story, an explanation, in order to process what’s happening.

We’re likely to adopt a narrative when it is:

• Plausible, even if extraordinary.

• Comforting, in that it relieves us of our worst fears.

• Gratifying, in that it makes us feel smart. It gives us a sense that we understand what’s happening, and makes us feel somewhat superior to those who just “can’t see it.”

Common narratives today

1. Great for America. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t hurt America. In fact, it strengthens America because we have more than enough oil. Meanwhile, it really hurts our rivals — countries like China.

2. A.R.C. America, China, and Russia already have an agreement — a secret pact to divide the world into spheres of influence. America will retreat back to the Americas. China will limit itself to its designated area. And Russia will take on Eurasia.

3. City of London. Behind the scenes, all of Trump’s actions can be explained by his attack on the City of London and his attempts to peel America away from the globalists. The kidnapping of Maduro? City of London. The attack on Iran? Taking out the City of London.

All of these are extraordinary claims, but plausible. America does have substantial oil production. It’s true that ultimately America, Russia, and China could come to some negotiated settlement where they agree on spheres of influence. And the banking cartel — which was based at one point in the City of London — has historically worked against the people and for its own selfish interests. There’s a reason the phrase “All Wars Are Bankers’ Wars” is so well known.

The trick with these narratives is that they can’t be proven or totally disproven. We are living in extraordinary times where many admit anything is possible. An advocate of any one of these narratives could make a compelling case, and you’d agree it’s possible. And right after, you could hear a compelling case for one of the others and agree once again — yeah, that’s possible too.

Here we get a glimpse into the weakness of narratives. Wildly divergent narratives shouldn’t be able to exist at the same time. And yet they do. They thrive.

Once you adopt a narrative, everything seems to fall into place for you. You can explain virtually any action that happens as part of the narrative. Even contrary evidence can be waved away by simply explaining that behind the scenes something else is happening — something unseen, some bigger plan that accounts for the contradiction.

“America has plenty of oil. We’ll get rich selling it to the world.” “We’ll bring other countries to their knees because they need our oil.” That idea doesn’t stand a basic math test. America imports 5 to 6 million barrels a day, primarily from Mexico and Canada. Now, supporters of this idea will say, “Yeah, but we are going to control them as part of this Monroe Doctrine.” Every contradiction to the narrative is explained by unseen elements — parts of an unseen but well-planned future, perfectly contained within a larger narrative.

If there were a prior agreement, an understanding, a settled deal between America, China, and Russia today, why would America still be shipping weapons to Ukraine and providing them with targeting information that kills Russians every single day and destroys their oil facilities? Supporters of the narrative ignore this, or once again insist it’s 5D chess — that there is a larger plan at play, that there are forces that must be battled beneath the surface, and that in good time these contradictions will be resolved.

And the City of London. The City of London narrative is, like the others, based on unseen forces, unseen actions and reactions, unannounced plans, and presumed relationships. While it relies on a long history of banker control which once emanated from the City of London, it ignores a critical part of history: the late 1800s and early 1900s, when the banking dynasties of America were built and financed by City of London interests. These same major City of London-backed banking dynasties pushed for the creation of the Federal Reserve and are in fact owners of the Federal Reserve. So if the City of London is our problem — the City of London which also controls the major banking interests in the United States and owns the Federal Reserve that creates American money — then when you speak of the City of London, are you not speaking of America?

All of these narratives have legs because they satisfy the key points of an effective narrative. They are plausible, even if extraordinary. They are comforting, because it’s nice to know that we’re winning, or that there is a plan, or that the people we supported are fighting for us against the bad guys. And they’re gratifying — they make us feel smart. You’ll notice that the strongest advocates of these narratives are pompous, even, about their ideas, and dismissive of anything that violates the narrative. They insult and attack others who point out the internal contradictions. Narratives make us feel smart. They can even make us pompous.

My point here is not to attack any particular narrative — although I believe all of the above are without merit. There are plenty of narratives I haven’t mentioned which I think are just as meritless as these. The larger point — the most important point I’m hoping to convey — is that narratives themselves are the problem. Narratives themselves are a form of control over human behavior. The bad guys know this, and they’ve flooded the zone with narratives. No matter who you are, you can find one you like. And as long as you find one you like, you’ll stop asking questions.

Allowing a Narrative Void

It’s clear to me that a key tactic in the information war is to flood the zone with narratives — a variety, enough so that everyone will find one to adopt and hold true for themselves. And that’s the trap. Once you adopt a narrative, you stop noticing the contradictions. You stop asking questions. You lose the ability to see through the fog.

We are made to think that the world is so vastly complicated, that anything is possible, and that complicated problems need complicated explanations. While that may be true, I think there’s a simpler way to understand what’s happening. It’s the same process you use in your own life: cause and effect. Throughout our lives we are witnesses of cause and effect. We become experts on cause and effect. We plan and live our lives by cause and effect.

We put our knowledge of cause and effect to work all the time. When we walk into a dark room, we flip a switch in order to turn the lights on. Our lifetime study of cause and effect has trained us that certain actions have consequences. They’re predictable. If we do something, we expect certain outcomes from that action. It’s a phenomenon we understand so deeply that we call it common sense.

Narratives are designed to subvert our lifetime experience — our lifetime study and implementation of cause and effect. A strong enough narrative allows us to disregard the obvious contradictions before our eyes. You could think of it as gaslighting on the highest order: “Who are you going to believe? Me, or your lying eyes?”

Narratives have served us well throughout human history. They’ve advanced civilization forward. They’ve helped us understand our lives. But today they’ve been turned against us.

I’m not suggesting you question or deny a particular narrative. Instead, put aside all narratives when looking at reality. Set them aside entirely and observe as you have your whole life — cause and effect. Cause and effect. And that includes ignoring the words of authorities, leaders, and narrative shapers/spinners, and instead looking at actions and outcomes. Fight the urge to fill the narrative void with some explanation that ties everything together. Let the void exist, and simply observe actions and outcomes.

Strait of Hormuz

Stripped of all narrative, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz looks different. What do we know? What action was taken? And what was the outcome?

First, we know that if Iran were attacked, the Strait of Hormuz would close. This was a known fact. If you’ve adopted a particular narrative, this is perhaps unknown to you — or this is one of those contradictions that gets explained away.

Yes, war is unpredictable. But the one certain consequence of an attack on Iran was that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed.

• Senior IRGC commanders (repeated in official statements and drills in January–mid-February 2026): Iran’s response to any U.S. or Israeli strike would include immediate closure or “full control” of the strait using mines, fast-attack boats, anti-ship missiles, and “smart management” to block enemy-linked shipping.

• Iranian Parliament (motion passed after earlier 2025 incidents and re-affirmed in early 2026): Authorized the government to close the strait in the event of war, which Iranian state media framed as standing policy if Iran was attacked.

They knew it. We knew it:

• CENTCOM and Pentagon assessments (publicly and in leaked planning documents referenced in 2025–early 2026 reporting): Iran’s “default response” to a major strike would be to attempt closure or severe disruption of the Strait of Hormuz using asymmetric naval warfare. This was treated as the primary economic risk in war-gaming.

• Israeli officials and intelligence (pre-strike statements): Publicly and internally assessed that any attack on Iranian territory would trigger Iran’s “Hormuz card” — i.e., closure or mining of the strait — as its most potent retaliatory tool.

Closure of the Strait was predictable and predicted. Flip the switch, and the lights go on. Launching a war meant the Strait would close. This is simple cause and effect. As demonstrated above, our war planners knew that if they pulled the trigger, the Strait would close.

In our own lives, we know that most of the actions we take are designed to achieve predictable outcomes. Flipping the switch to turn on the lights. It’s all done with intention. And yet, if you adopt a narrative, it requires you to assume that Trump’s decision to go to war was not done to cause the most predictable outcome. We are to believe instead that he launched the war to stop Iran from building a bomb they were not building — or that his actions were taken primarily to cause tenuous outcomes like regime change, which might result in a better situation, despite virtually all contradictory experience.

I’m not suggesting that damaging or destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities, or causing regime change, weren’t additional goals of the war. How can I know Trump’s inner thoughts? Any attempt to do so requires the adoption of a narrative of some kind.

Here, we’re trying to maintain a narrative void for a moment. So we must rely on our observations of cause and effect. And we must utilize our lifelong understanding that most actions are taken primarily to create predictable consequences. That’s what humans do.

In that light, our observations tell a simple story. Trump knew that if he attacked Iran, the Strait of Hormuz would close. And so it’s clear that he was at least comfortable with the idea that the Strait would close — or, in fact, that was his intended outcome.

If this thought is new to you, your first question would be: “But why?” That is your thirst for narrative wanting an answer to explain everything. Ignore that thirst. And come back to cause and effect.

The Strait has been closed for 47 days. Well — not completely closed. Trickles of ships have been able to escape with Iran’s permission, until recently, when Trump, wanting the Strait completely closed, initiated a blockade. That’s the cause.

So what is the effect?

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is, almost certainly, the largest economic calamity in human history. Roughly a third of the world’s seaborne oil and a significant share of its liquefied natural gas moved through that narrow stretch of water every day. For 47 days, that flow has been choked off. The shockwaves are only beginning to reach global economies. As they take root, they will touch every one of us — regardless of where we live, regardless of which side we thought we were on, regardless of which narrative we adopted to explain it.

That is the observable outcome. That is cause and effect. Trump knew the Strait would close. He pulled the trigger anyway. The lights, in this case, went off..

Everything beyond that — the why, the grand plan, the 5D chess, the secret pact, the hidden enemy in some distant financial district — is narrative. And narrative is precisely what we’ve been trained to reach for at exactly the moment we should be watching most carefully.

This is the discipline I’m asking for, and I won’t pretend it’s easy. Sitting in the narrative void is uncomfortable. The human pull toward a story — any story — is relentless. You’ll catch yourself slipping back into one within days, maybe hours. I do too. The work isn’t to arrive at some final, narrative-free understanding of the world. The work is to keep noticing when you’ve grabbed onto a story, and to keep setting it down.

Because that’s the trap they’ve built. Not any single narrative — but the certainty that comes with adopting one. The moment you feel that certainty settle in, the moment everything starts to “make sense,” is the moment you’ve stopped seeing.

Flip the switch. Watch the lights. Trust your eyes.

I spent much of last two days working with AI. I know it’s the future, and I’ve watched it evolve, but frankly I’ve fallen behind. It’s advancing so quickly - and its capabilities are expanding so fast - that I can feel myself losing ground.

I’m not a techie. I don’t code, and I still can’t get Claude Code set up properly - yet - though I will. In the meantime, here’s what I managed to pull off mostly over a single Saturday while balancing everything else:

What I Built in a Weekend

Dashboard Development

I built a dashboard that pulls together multiple lines of business. I can now see, in real time, how many customers I have, the net revenue they generate, trends over time, and what those customers are actually worth.

When I ran a company with 200 employees and a 40-person tech group, it would have taken two or three months to get this kind of dashboard shipped. With AI, it took about eight hours total.

During those eight hours, I went back and forth between the AI and the rest of my work. I’d give it a task, it would do the work and come back with questions or results, and then I’d test it, give feedback, and send it back out again. Once it created a solid base, it suggested improvements. Not every suggestion was a winner, but plenty were, and I added those too.

For the first time, I have a clear dashboard showing exactly how the business is performing compared to the past. And I got it without a single employee, a technology expert, or expensive software subscription costs.

Membership Site Exploration

I dabbled with creating a new membership site for Phyle subscribers.

I made real progress - it looks good and it works - but I wasn’t sure how to move people over cleanly, so I’ve paused it for now. The transition has lots of edge cases, but I have no doubt AI will simplify most of them. So it isn’t live yet, but it absolutely could be, and I expect it will be.

Saving Money

On Lark, I uploaded my American Express bill for all of 2025. I asked it to show me where I’m spending all this money and what I can change. I told it to focus on recurring charges — things I’m not using, things I should downgrade, or subscriptions I should just cancel.

Within 60 minutes, I’d reduced annual recurring charges by about $7,000.

Business Improvements

On the business-improvement side, I wanted to know what obvious things I might be missing with my Substack newsletter (CrisisInvesting.com). I asked AI to evaluate whether I’m actually using the Substack platform the way it’s meant to be used. Specifically, I asked:

Was I taking advantage of all the available features?

Was I fully leveraging our YouTube channel?

Were there other opportunities I was missing?

Ultimately, I was looking for low-hanging fruit — the easy stuff I should have done months ago.

AI generated several ideas — some I could implement immediately, and did. Within an hour of implementing one of them, it had already resulted in five additional paid subscribers. This, in addition to the other work I’ve been doing to grow the business recently, pushed us all the way up to #6 in Finance Rising Stars.

AI doesn’t just hand you suggestions. If you keep going, it can help you deploy them. Sure, there’s still some manual work. But the heavy lifting? AI did that.

Back in 2009, when ZeroHedge was just getting off the ground, I had a relationship with someone there. Every single article I published was syndicated by ZeroHedge, which was a huge benefit to our business at the time. Today, from time to time, our articles get republished elsewhere and eventually end up on sites like ZeroHedge. I reached out to get our CrisisInvesting.com articles regularly syndicated, but my contact is no longer there. My emails go unanswered.

So I asked AI, “How do I get back into the distribution system?”

It gave me some ideas and helped me draft a compelling case for why we should be added as a contributor. For the record, as always with AI writing, there was an enormous amount of editing and changes required to make it sound like me and to make it accurate. But again, fundamentally, it did the heavy lifting. Writing that email is something I put off for years; with AI, it was no big deal.

Will it get us back on ZeroHedge? Who knows. The email is scheduled to go out on Monday morning, so we’ll see how it goes.

And in case you’re wondering: no, this missive is not written by AI - not even a single word of it. However, I do use an AI tool on my computer that converts my voice to text, so this note is essentially dictated, with an AI interface in between.

I use the voice to text AI constantly to respond to text messages, draft emails, and write essays. It’s a huge productivity enhancement for me.

How to Get Real Value Out of AI

The key to making all of this work is prompting — and practicing it. You have to learn how to write a good prompt, which mostly means giving the AI enough context to produce real solutions instead of superficial suggestions. Once you get those suggestions, don’t stop there; ask it to help you implement them and handle the heavy lifting. You can even set up daily tasks. For example, I use AI to monitor for local events in my area — things my family and I might want to participate in — and I get alerted every week.

AI is the biggest boon for entrepreneurs I have ever experienced in my entire life, and nothing even comes close. The implications of all this are even more impressive (or disconcerting, depending upon your point of view).

I try to stay generally up to date with AI’s capabilities, but I’m nowhere near using these tools to their full potential. Right now, there are thousands — probably hundreds of thousands — of people devoting enormous time and energy to turning AI into a personal superpower. Used well, it lets one person do the work of dozens, if not hundreds, of people.

If you’re an employee and you aren’t using these tools to do your work better, you’re making a gigantic mistake. Sooner or later, you’ll be replaced by someone who does. I don’t think AI will replace you directly, but someone who knows how to use it certainly will.

And that one person might not replace just you; they could probably replace a dozen of your coworkers. That’s how good these tools are when you know how to use them.

Most People Are Using It Wrong

Most people use AI to create “AI slop” — trash or stuff nobody wants to read, like the low-quality writing that’s filling our feeds. Or they use it as an advanced form of Google for research or to get basic information.

The proper way to use AI is to have an actual problem and leverage AI tools to solve it. Like with the reporting dashboard I made. I was frustrated with not having great access to business intelligence that I’d always had in my past entrepreneurial and business endeavors.

Any specific, well-defined problem is a perfect task for AI.

A Few More Projects I’ve Built

I own many thousands of books - some in digital print form and some in audio-digital form. One day as a project, I created a much better interface for my digital audiobooks than I can get from Audible alone.

It allows me to search by topic and content through the 717 books in the library to find the one I want. When I click on it, it opens Audible.

I created another book directory while I was writing the book with Doug Casey called The Preparation. I assembled all our book recommendations into a single website so that I could see what was included, what was required, and what was optional for reading.

You can check out that website here if you’re curious:

https://omazgsuz.manus.space/

For my wife’s birthday, I built an application using AI that took in photographs of her throughout her life and turned them into a beautiful video with music - specifically designed to tug at her heartstrings.

It took me about 20 hours to get this project done. It wasn’t easy, but it was part of my experiments to make sure I actually understand how these tools work. The upshot is that it did, in fact, make her cry. She loved it.

Three Takeaways

Why do I share all this? For three reasons:

1. A warning: If you’re not using AI to build things, create things, and productively add to the world - if you don’t know how to use these tools to accomplish that - you will quickly fall behind, and there will be consequences and missed opportunities.

2. Missed opportunities: Whether it’s saving $7,000 on recurring charges I didn’t need (and no doubt you have some of those on your credit card too), using AI to do any part of your work better, or building things where you’re limited only by your imagination - you’re leaving a lot on the table.

3. Macro consequences: These are hard to fathom. You hear lots of talk about an “AI bubble,” and sure, there may be over-investment in data centers. But the productivity unlocked by these tools is difficult to wrap your head around. They will change the world. They will change the way you work. They may even determine whether or not you work.

Even more, they’re just getting started. The technology is improving so rapidly that it’s impossible to keep up with, and (even more) people are still learning how to leverage these tools fully.

Like I said, there are thousands - maybe hundreds of thousands - of people devoting enormous amounts of energy to mastering these tools. Will they be able to do things with them that we cannot currently imagine? Yes. And that’s just with the current tech; the technology in six months will be much better.

So, if you’re already experimenting with AI, congratulations. I encourage you - as I do myself - to double down on your experiments and building your skill set.

For those of you who think it’s a passing fad, or that you’re too old to take advantage of these technologies, you’re making a gigantic mistake. There is so much more that can be done with them; there is much to be learned and created, and there’s no reason that you should be excluded from all of that creation. Simply ignoring it will have severe consequences and plenty of missed opportunities.

Best,

Matt

You’re buying a risk profile.

And lately, the risk is showing up in the data.

One headline that should stop you cold: Americans with four-year degrees recently reached a record 25% of the unemployed.

Now, read that again carefully — it does not mean “25% unemployment.” It means one out of every four unemployed people now has a four-year degree.

That’s the punchline nobody wants to say out loud:

We’re producing more credentials than competence the market is willing to pay for — especially at the entry level.

The real scandal isn’t unemployment. It’s underemployment.

Even when a degree-holder is “employed,” the problem is often that they’re employed below the level the degree was supposed to unlock.

The St. Louis Fed summarizes it bluntly: more than half of recent college graduates start out in jobs that don’t require a college degree.

That’s not a temporary inconvenience. It’s the start of a track.

Because early career years are when you build:

• hard skills

• a portfolio of real work

• professional credibility

• income momentum

If you spend those years doing “degree-required” busywork (or work that doesn’t require a degree at all), you don’t just lose money.

You lose trajectory.

“But college grads have low unemployment!”

For the overall adult population 25+, bachelor’s degree holders do have relatively low unemployment: BLS data shows ~2.8% in the September 2025 figures for “bachelor’s degree and higher.”

That’s the stat colleges love.

But it’s not the stat parents are actually buying.

Parents aren’t paying for a 2.8% unemployment rate at age 45.

They’re paying for the promise that at 22, their kid will step onto the moving walkway: good job → higher pay → adult competence → stable life.

And that promise is cracking right where it matters most: entry level. LinkedIn’s workforce data shows hiring is still down 17% compared to pre-pandemic (May 2019).
When hiring is tight, the least experienced get squeezed first.

Which is exactly why so many young grads are “employed” but not launched.

The “job in your field” illusion

Here’s another gut-punch statistic: a Cengage report says only 30% of 2025 graduates found jobs in their field (41% for 2024 grads).

Again, yes, it’s survey/report-based — but it matches what hiring managers quietly admit: a lot of degrees don’t map cleanly to a job that trains you and pays you.

And when the mapping fails, people improvise.

Some improvise well. Many don’t.

ResumeBuilder reports that among Gen Z bachelor’s degree holders, 34% are currently working in blue-collar/skilled trade work, with another 3% planning to pursue it.

That’s not a moral judgment. It’s a signal: the labor market is rewarding practical skills and durability.

The cost problem is real — and it’s not just tuition

The sticker-price “budget” for a private nonprofit four-year school now averages around $65,470 per year — call it $262k over four years.

Public four-year budgets are lower, but still easily drift into six figures across four years depending on choices and location.

And yes — you might not pay full sticker. Aid changes the number.

But here’s what doesn’t change:

You’re still paying with years.

Four years of your kid’s most energetic, moldable, trainable years — right when they could be stacking skills, building confidence, and learning how the world actually works.

So what do you do instead?

You build a young man who is competent.

Not credentialed. Not “well-rounded.” Not fluent in the latest academic fashion.

Competent.

That’s the thesis behind The Preparation: How to Become Competent, Confident, and Dangerous.

It’s not “anti-college” so much as it is pro competence and independence.

Because here’s the truth:

College can be a great tool — for the right person, in the right field, at the right price, at the right time.

But as a default pipeline? It’s turning into a high-cost holding pen that too often produces adults who are:

• dependent

• anxious

• broke

• risk-averse

• professionally unproven

And then we act surprised when they can’t get traction.

The Preparation is a different operating system

Instead of “four years of classes,” The Preparation is built around real-world competence — the kind that produces options.

It’s organized into themed cycles (quarters) with concrete skills, real projects, and measurable outcomes — the kind of things you can do, not just claim.

Following the path laid out in detail in the book not only produces a young man of competence and confidence, it produces impressive young men.

I should know. My son is the beta tester for the program.

In just two years he became an EMT, worked on wildfires, learned a second language and how to play the guitar, he knows how to fly a plane, he sailed from the Falkland Islands through the Straight of Magellan. He launched his own business, learned to scuba dive and so much more. At the moment he’s in Thailand at a training camp for Muay Thai. No he’s not just travelling around and doing fun stuff, he’s following a program designed to turn him into the man he wants to become. The man any parent hopes their son might be.

He’s halfway through his journey and already he’s a valuable man to have around and is totally independent at just 20 years old.

Here’s what the program in the book looks like in plain English:

1) You learn to produce value, fast

Not “study value.” Produce it.

• Learn a skill someone will pay for

• Prove it with a project

• Build a portfolio

• Get paid (even small at first)

• Level up

2) You become physically capable and psychologically steady

This is the part college avoids — and life punishes.

Competence isn’t just knowledge. It’s:

• carrying responsibility without melting down

• solving problems without a committee

• doing hard things when nobody claps

3) You earn independence — financially and socially

A young man who can fix things, sell things, build things, and lead himself is hard to trap.

He can move cities. Change industries. Start a business. Join a crew. Ship value.

He doesn’t need permission.

The pitch (and I’m not going to romanticize it)

If your kid is 16–22, the world is about to get less forgiving.

Entry-level white-collar paths are not guaranteed. Hiring is choppy. The credential arms race is escalating.
Meanwhile, the economy is still full of people who can’t find someone reliable to:

• show up

• do the work

• communicate

• solve problems

• finish the job

That gap is opportunity.

The Preparation is designed to push your kid into that gap — on purpose — with structure, standards, and a real roadmap.

A simple challenge for parents

Before you sign the college paperwork, ask your kid two questions:

1. What can you do — right now — that someone would pay you for?

2. If college disappeared tomorrow, how would you build a life anyway?

If the answers are vague, you don’t need more brochures.

You need a plan that produces competence.

That’s what The Preparation is.

Buy it now on Amazon.com

Best wishes from a proud father,

Matt

Soon, we might expect the sequel, and it’s going to be worse. But it won’t be a Plandemic this time. It’ll come in the form of a narrative: that America is headed for civil war. You’ll hear it everywhere—on cable news, in your feed, from AI-generated “whistleblowers” who don’t exist. And the beauty of it, for those running the game, is that it doesn’t even have to happen. It just has to feel like it’s happening.

There won’t be armies or front lines this time. The violence will be real enough for the cameras and the AI video that feels our social media feeds but scattered and exaggerated until it feels universal. A shootout in Oregon becomes the “Battle of Beaver Creek.” A deepfake of a politician calling for blood sparks chaos in a dozen cities. AI-enhanced footage of troops moving through a quiet suburb trends worldwide before anyone can confirm the town even exists. The effect will be total immersion in unreality.

Your phone will buzz with “breaking news.” The feeds will flood with panic and outrage. And yet, if you step outside, you’ll find the world perfectly ordinary. The birds still singing. The sky still blue. That dissonance—the gap between what you see and what you’re told—is the new frontier of control. It’s how you separate a person from his own senses. It’s how you make him question his sanity.

But the fallout will be very real. The phantom “civil war” will explain everything that happens next. Food shortages? “Supply chain disruptions due to unrest.” Rolling blackouts? “Cyberattacks from domestic extremists.” Bank freezes and travel bans? “Security measures.” Every new control will come wrapped in the same message: this is for your protection. And after years of fear, most people will accept it without a fight. They’ll even thank their rulers for keeping order.

This is the perfected PSYOP. Government doesn’t need to act like a tyrant—it just needs to pose as your shield against your neighbor. COVID turned every cough into a potential crime; this next stage will turn every differing opinion into one. You won’t fear the State—you’ll fear other citizens. And when that happens, the population polices itself.

The objective isn’t victory; it’s paralysis. Keep people scared, angry, and divided long enough, and they’ll beg for stability at any price. While they’re busy fighting over digital ghosts, the real transformations can happen quietly: economic resets, new forms of currency, digital ID systems, restrictions that never roll back. A managed collapse disguised as a grassroots conflict.

In the end, people will willingly surrender the last pieces of reality. They’ll embrace verified news feeds, identity-linked social platforms, and AI fact-checkers as a form of safety. They’ll trade the messy unpredictability of freedom for the comfort of an algorithmic cage. All they’ll have to do is stop believing their own eyes.

The first American civil war was fought with rifles and cannons. The next one will be fought with code and narrative. And the only real act of rebellion will be to log off—to look away from the glowing feed and remember that the real world, the one outside your window, is still there. Quiet. Solid. Waiting for anyone brave enough to return to it.

This book, The Preparation: How to become Competent, Confident and Dangerous. is a product of three generations. Legendary investor Doug Casey, myself, a serial entrepreneur, and my son, who not only contributed to the book but acted as our beta tester for two years so far, proving the system works.

The book is envisioned as an alternative to college. Although, frankly, right now people long-out of college are using it, and there are many things in this book that could be done well before college.

If you or someone you love follows the detailed program outlined in this book, I guarantee that they’ll experience positive results almost immediately and, after four years, they will be well-educated, unimaginably capable, confident, and totally prepared to face an uncertain future. The results will be obvious. They’ll stand head and shoulders over their peers.

The book is filled with principles, character building exercises, practical strategies, and a detailed curriculum. Any man with a bit of courage encountering this book can use it to turn himself into a genuinely interesting, talented, and remarkable man.

HOW YOU CAN HELP

There’s no money in books. And, as Doug Casey says, “they cause a lot of brain damage to write.” But this topic was urgent and important for my own son. And in fact, for all our sons and daughters today. So we were compelled to write it.

We didn’t write it with altruistic motives. But it was driven by something similar - a desire to do something important. And it became clear to me, at least, during the writing of this book, That it would be the most important thing I’ve done in my 50 years. Give it a look. I think you’ll agree. And once you do, I’d like your help.

If you haven’t bought a copy yet, I encourage you to do so. Some have called it “life changing” so I’m sure you will like it. You almost certainly know a young man who needs it. Put it in his hands. You can get it here, on Amazon.

If you have a podcast (or know someone who does), Doug Casey or I or even Maxim would be happy to appear on the podcast to talk about the book. We’ve appeared on dozens already from James Altucher to Glen Beck (released soon).

If you have an email list, let me know. I can send you an email appropriate for your subscribers that they would get great value in. Trust me, any loving parent or grandparent concerned about their young man’s future (and who isn’t?) will be grateful to you for having introduced them to it. You can check out some of our reviews on Amazon to see what I mean.

Alternatively... if you have any other ideas as to how we can get the word out about this book and get it in the hands of as many as possible. I’d love to hear them.

Doug and I are on a mission with this book. If you have the interest and ability to help us in this mission, I will be in your debt.

Co-Author, The Preparation
Publisher, CrisisInvesting.com

P.S. You can reach me at pr@thepreparation.com

“I’m now 40 copies deep—buying for myself and my clients—and I’m sure that’ll 10x over the next year.” —Craig Ballantyne
“The section on overcoming social anxiety… alone was worth the entire book—for anyone.” —Craig Ballantyne

I sat down with my friend Craig Ballantyne to talk about The Preparation—what it is, who it’s for, and why it’s a better fourth path than college/trade school/military for a lot of young men (and plenty of adults). Craig didn’t pull punches. He called it “the most important book of 2026,” poked a smart hole in one section, and still left saying he’s buying it by the box.

Watch the episode → Above

Why this episode is worth your time

• Who it’s for (spoiler: not just 17–22 year-old guys). Craig explains why the framework works for fathers, mothers, and mid-career adults rebuilding competence.

• The Be → Do → Have reset. We walk through the core riddle and why “having” is a byproduct of doing—anchored by a personal code that actually changes behavior.

• From social anxiety to capability. How Maxim went from clammy-handed, COVID-era isolation to EMT certification, high-latitude sailing, wildfire work, and pilot training.

• The Cycles: a concrete alternative to college. EMT, welding, heavy equipment, Shelter Institute homebuilding, sailing, pilot hours, cooking, entrepreneurship…with reflection and accountability baked in.

• Entrepreneurship in the real world. Maxim’s current cycle: building a precision agriculture drone business in Spanish—finding customers, selling, delivering value.

• Skill stacking > specialization. Why “specialization is for insects,” and how generalists make themselves future-proof in an AI world that eats narrow white-collar tasks.

• The college critique—by the numbers. Cost, opportunity cost, and why “college prolongs childhood” instead of building independence.

Buy the Book

Episode highlights (timestamps)

• 00:00 Craig opens: “Most important book of 2026… is The Preparation.”

• 00:01:25 Who it’s really for (women, parents, and 50-year-olds included).

• 00:04:59 Be-Do-Have and the Personal Code (rules + virtues + capabilities).

• 00:11:37 Craig shares his public rules—how he rewired daily behavior.

• 00:14:25 Social anxiety: the exact mindset flip that changed everything.

• 00:16:26 Who I am, where I am (Uruguay ranch), and why we wrote the book.

• 00:19:17 College prolongs childhood; the actual economic trade-off.

• 00:26:47 The Cycles: anchor activities, academics, fun, and reflection.

• 00:33:00 Craig’s quibble: we debate a dedicated nose-to-nose selling cycle.

• 00:35:12 Discomfort on purpose—why reps erase anxiety.

• 00:36:05 Heinlein, MacGyver, and the Expert Generalist.

• 00:42:25 The academic spine: real science/history via the best free lectures.

• 00:46:49 Accountability: Maxim’s weekly public log → skills, opportunities, $600/day wildfire work.

• 00:48:08 The university system has degraded; AI vs. specialization.

• 00:52:39 Hard truth: stop blaming women; men must become men.

• 00:52:45 Where to get the book; why the hardcover is deliberate “lure.”

• 00:54:11 Tribe > tradition: join the movement and ignore the noise.

Three takeaways you can use today

1. Write a Personal Code (10 minutes): list 3 things you do that make you feel small → write the rule you’ll live by instead. Add 3 virtues you’ll train (mine: dignity, courage, temperance).

2. Pick one Cycle-style skill to start in the next 30 days (EMT/first aid, welding, cooking, ham radio, coding, heavy equipment, sailing). Book it and pay—lock it in.

3. Publish a weekly reflection (3 bullets): What I did. What I learned. What I’m doing next. Public accountability is rocket fuel.

Buy The Book Today

A few important observations before I get into the meat of what I want to share with you today.

Over the last ten days I've done 11 interviews about the book. Not all of the interviewers had read the book, but for everyone that had, the feedback was both gratifying and shocking. I'll share a few lines I pulled from the transcripts with James Altucher and Tom Woods to give you a flavor.

Yesterday, and I were interviewed by a real writer; a man of talent, . I was nervous. I literally don’t recall ever being nervous. But, my admiration for Kunstler’s many talents and the thought of talking about our book gave my insides a twist.

I’m relieved to say that James, too, spoke highly of the book. The podcast will be published soon so you can hear for yourself. He was so complimentary with what we had achieved that, for the first time, I got confirmation of what my gut had told me all along - this is important. A must do and despite all the brain damage. Do it.

Wasted on The Young?

The biggest thing I learned through these interviews is something I’d never considered before - that The Preparation is NOT just a book for young men of college age.

My own myopic focus limited me from seeing its broader potential and appeal. This, despite the fact that it motivated me to do new things, learn python, practice drawing and make plans for others.

It was in the interviews with people like Tom and James, both Altucher and Kunstler, that I learned of the value it could provide for people at multiple stages of life. Most that I spoke with confessed that it applied to their lives right now and were eager to apply some of the ideas… and they had plans to do so.

In the past I said, “if you know a young man who needs direction and needs a worthy goal to strive for, do them a favor. Buy the book. Get it in their hands. Give them a shot.”

But after all these conversations, it is clear - if you are the type of person who is interested in improving yourself, I think you'll find The Preparation to be both unusual and invaluable.

A Good Book

Anyway, it's official now. James Kunstler said so. And he would know. It is a good book. And, unless you’ve just given in to the 2nd law of thermodynamics and are satisfied with the decline that it brings, push back and Get your copy of The Preparation now. Don’t skimp. Get the hardcover, you’ll thank me later.

Now to the Main Point of this Essay…

Other than Doug, nobody has a clue that this book wouldn’t have been published without the active participation of the entire Smith household.

Maxim’s role is pretty obvious. He wrote a few chapters, he helped me record the audiobook (to be released soon). Get ready for that - Maxim’s voice is WAY deeper than mine.

And Maxim’s greatest contribution was, of course, his willingness to be our beta tester and help me take a good sounding theory and turn it into a real blueprint; from a vague notion to something so structured and well thought out, that anyone with a bit of courage to take the first step can achieve fantastic results.

But it's not just Max.

My wife, Jane, has been a lifesaver. There was one point, just several weeks ago, where I literally threw the manuscript in the fire because I'd become so discouraged. Jane is always a source of encouragement, but at that stage I needed a hell of a lot more. She picked up the pieces and helped me solve a problem I simply could not solve myself.

But it's not just Jane and Maxim.

One of the few criticisms I received about the book is that it is for men. The reason for that is simple: For me, this book was a father's best attempt to give his son the critical ideas, support, and the direction that he needed - at that particular time- to get out of his slump, to develop a clear picture of who he wanted to be, and a specific plan to become a man of substance and capability.

Of course, Maxim is, or rather was - a boy. Today, after two years following The Preparation, I'd consider him a man in all ways, except one. He's not yet a father. And that can wait! But since he was a boy, the book was written for boys. Got it?

Girls

My wonderful daughter Bella is nearly 18 years old and, the same age as Max when we started the preparation two years ago. In order to fulfill my duties as a father, I'll do my best to prepare her for the future as well. Will it end up as a Preparation for girls book? Yes. Most likely.

Once again, it'll be a family affair. I'll need to rely heavily on my wife - again, as she has an intuitive grasp of the insecurities, hopes, motivations, and fears of girls Bella's age.

If the preparation speaks to young men, it's because of the fact that I had that same intuitive grasp of a young man's state of mind. It’s important we get that right for the young women too. As with Maxim, Bella will play the critical role. The preparation was a collaborative project. And the version for girls will be as well.

I don't talk about Bella as much. It seems like she likes to live behind the scenes - at least for now. But she, naturally, has been a big part of the household effort that made The Preparation possible. Ever-cheerful and always happy to help, as she saw me buried with work for the last 8 months, she'd stop by my home office several times a day asking if I needed anything or how she could help. And she was a great help. Even today, she's actively working to promote the book. She's cleverly come up with strategies for reaching out to the right people and getting a book in their hands. People who could really move the needle.

A Worthy Pursuit

It's easy to forget that, not only does family come first, but that we often overlook what we can accomplish together, as a family unit. Even better, it brings us all closer together.

What an egregious error it is to overlook that source of power, capability, and wholesome connection. It lays there latent, waiting for you to emerge with something worthy. But, it’s gotta be good to bring otherwise warring siblings together.

Each morning, I share the sales stats on the book in our family group chat along with some of the wonderful feedback we’ve received. Our whole family is proud. Proud of how well the book is doing so far. And proud of how the book can make a huge difference in the lives of young men. Young men who are desperate for a worthy pursuit and the kind of direction which the preparation provides.

The fact is - it’s not just young men who desperately need a worthy pursuit. We all do. For our family in recent months, that worthy pursuit has been getting this book out the door and into the hands of people it will help.

Finding something worthy of our best efforts, both individually and as a family, just might be the most important thing we do.

Have a great weekend. Make it count.

Matt

P.S. If you own the book already, PLEASE leave a review on Amazon. Good or bad, just post what you really think. I’m told that reviews make all the difference.

At its core, the program aims to:

• Build algorithmic models that “decompose” adversary strategies into elemental behaviors.

• Use massive data—signals intelligence, open-source information, even social media—to create high-fidelity “avatars” of enemy decision-makers.

• Simulate possible responses to a range of U.S. and allied actions, exploring which ones best deter, incentivize, or nudge adversaries toward preferred outcomes.

• Integrate insights from psychological profiling and machine learning to continually update these models as real-world conditions shift.

The promise is profound: a system that doesn’t just predict what an adversary might do, but actively guides policymakers toward courses of action that shape the adversary’s decision calculus—minimizing escalation and maximizing U.S. strategic advantage.

DARPA’s Theory of Mind program fundamentally changes how conflicts are managed. Decision-makers can run gaming scenarios at unprecedented detail and speed, customizing incentives or deterrents tailored to both cultural and individual psychologies. Risks of unintended escalation might be sharply reduced, while opportunities to “push the line” without crossing it become clearer.

Theory of Mind Warfare Turned on the American Public in 2020

The same tools originally designed for military use were later deployed against the American (and global) public in 2020

AI-powered behavioral analytics, inspired by military-grade “theory of mind” models, were strategically employed during the COVID-19 pandemic to not just inform but actively shape public perception, sentiment, and compliance—creating a continuous feedback loop between government actions and public psychology. These systems quietly moved the world’s response from reactive to adaptive, fundamentally influencing how populations experienced and responded to the scamdemic.

How These Systems Shaped Public Minds

1. Real-Time Sentiment Analysis and Information Targeting AI-powered platforms actively monitored social media, news, and digital conversations to track shifts in public mood, anxieties, and resistance to emerging health policies. These tools analyzed tone, emotional context, and response patterns following government announcements, often providing immediate feedback to policymakers on how their messaging was being received.

2. Tailored Messaging and Adaptive Communication Insights from these platforms allowed authorities to:

• Refine government communication strategies

• Push "approved" narratives to counter "misinformation"

• Adjust messaging in real time to allay public fears, address misconceptions, or reinforce confidence in health measures such as lockdowns or vaccines

Remember this...

3. Behavioral Nudges and Targeted Interventions. Governments, aided by behavioral insights teams and AI analysts, designed "nudge" interventions—such as targeted text reminders, default scheduling of vaccine appointments, and personalized risk feedback—to increase uptake of desired behaviors. Rapid A/B testing determined which messages or policy tweaks worked best for specific populations.

4. Feedback Loops for Policy Calibration. Behavioral and sentiment data were continuously fed back into policy decision-making. If public adherence waned or opposition spiked (visible through sentiment tracking), messaging and interventions could be swiftly recalibrated to regain support or mitigate disinformation spikes.

5. Data-Driven Misinformation Management. AI-driven platforms scanned for and flagged viral misinformation. Rapid response teams could then deploy counter-messaging or media campaigns—often through the same platforms—using knowledge of which narratives resonated with hesitant demographics.

Covid Was Just the Beginning: The Theory of Mind at Work in Recent Theaters of War

Given the ambition of such strategic modeling, it’s worth asking whether this kind of “hyper-rational,” AI-enabled approach helps explain what we’ve seen in several recent, high-stakes military theaters.

The Pager Attack and Decapitation of Hezbollah’s Leadership

What Happened: In September 2024, thousands of pagers distributed to Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon and Syria exploded nearly simultaneously. The devices, covertly manufactured and seeded by Israel through a shell company, had been rigged with miniature explosives. The result: dozens killed or wounded—mostly Hezbollah operatives, but also some civilians—crippling the group’s command structure and sowing panic throughout its ranks.

Fit with Theory of Mind: This operation demonstrates the power of deep adversary modeling. Israeli intelligence anticipated Hezbollah would switch to “low-tech” communications to evade modern surveillance. By predicting both the technological pivot and its psychological underpinnings, Israel was able to seed and trigger a devastating attack at a moment of maximum vulnerability—an almost textbook application of an algorithmic Theory of Mind approach. It wasn’t just about killing leaders; it was about destabilizing the group’s sense of security, disrupting its decision-making networks, and shaping its strategies long-term.

Israel’s Operation Red Wedding & Operation Narnia: The 2025 Strikes on Iran

What Happened: The Israeli attack that kicked off the 12-day war with Iran in June 2025 stands as one of the most dramatic and meticulously orchestrated military operations in recent Middle East history. This surprise assault was codenamed Operation Red Wedding (targeting Iran's top military leadership) and Operation Narnia (targeting nuclear scientists), both designed to deliver a strategic shock to Iran’s command, control, and nuclear capabilities.

In the early hours of June 13, 2025, Israel launched intensive airstrikes and covert operations inside Iran. Leveraging deep intelligence penetration, Israeli operatives lured over 30 of Iran’s top military leaders—including Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force—into a fortified underground bunker in Tehran, where they were killed with precision strikes. Simultaneously, Israeli forces targeted Iran’s nuclear program by assassinating at least nine senior nuclear scientists and striking several critical sites. The initial waves consisted of over 200 strike sorties and more than 330 munitions used against nearly 100 high-priority targets, decapitating Iran’s military leadership and significantly damaging its nuclear infrastructure.

The aftermath included at least 1,100 Iranian dead (over 30 senior commanders and 11 nuclear scientists), thousands wounded, massive damage to nuclear and missile facilities, and extensive civilian displacement. The algo must have hiccupped, because Iran didn’t collapse, they fought back.

Iran’s retaliation included over 550 ballistic missiles and 1,000 suicide drones fired at Israel, bringing about a wide regional escalation, but the AI system gained control over the situation likely directing US involvement and ultimately stopping short of all-out open war.

Fit with Theory of Mind: This operation reflects detailed adversary modeling and scenario simulation. Israel orchestrated a complex deception to gather Iranian leadership, carefully timed simultaneous strikes, and targeted high-value assets. The approach failed to correctly anticipate Iranian responses, but sought to degrade capabilities and leveraged psychological impact to magnify the strategic effect.

This was an operation not only of military power, but of insight into adversary psychology and escalation management—embodying the goals and tools of Theory of Mind-style strategy. The decapitation plan failed, but the AI driven system kept working on the problem until a satisfactory resolution was achieved, “The Twelve Day War” was over.

Operation Spiderweb: Ukraine’s Drone Assault on Russia’s Bomber Fleet

What Happened: Operation Spiderweb was an unprecedented Ukrainian covert operation that dramatically changed modern warfare by targeting Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. On June 1, 2025, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) launched the largest drone attack of the war against Russian airbases deep inside Russian territory—reaching as far as Siberia. Over 18 months, Ukrainian operatives smuggled 117 FPV (first-person view) drones into Russia, hiding them atop trucks near key airfields, where they were remotely activated for the attack.

Targets included airbases at Belaya, Dyagilevo, Ivanovo Severny, Olenya, and Ukrainka. At least 41 Russian military aircraft—Tu-160, Tu-95, Tu-22M bombers, and A-50 Airborne Early Warning aircraft—were claimed damaged or destroyed. The strikes severely impacted about one-third of Russia's cruise missile carrier fleet and forced Moscow to disperse its remaining bombers, exposing a previously assumed safe strategic asset and dealing a psychological and operational blow to Russia.

Fit with Theory of Mind: Operation Spiderweb exemplified adversary modeling and calculated escalation management. Ukrainian planners anticipated the psychological, strategic, and logistical ramifications of attacking these high-value targets—carefully avoiding nuclear escalation. By choosing the fleet’s means of launch (aircraft and support assets) rather than command centers or nuclear warheads, the operation demonstrated deep understanding of Russian red lines and risk thresholds. This is precisely the kind of strategic, “mind-reading” planning that DARPA’s Theory of Mind program envisions: leveraging intelligence and simulation to shape adversary perceptions, limit escalation, and achieve operational surprise.

The events in Lebanon, Iran, Russia, and in our own countries suggest that today’s “gray zone” warfare is increasingly being shaped by decision-makers armed with unprecedented, algorithmic insight into adversary psychology and strategy—the very vision that DARPA’s Theory of Mind program is bringing to the fore.

These are not just wars of bombs and bullets, but of information, perception, and calculated influence—run through a cybernetic loop of prediction, adaptation, and real-time feedback.

The United States and its allies have clearly adopted the new "Theory of Mind" model of warfare not merely as a technological leap, but as a strategic necessity. No kinetic action could have moved the American public the way the covid psychological operations did. And in the conflict with Russia, traditional methods of waging war could easily result in total nuclear war. In other cases, our conventional systems alone don't provide us with the technological supremacy they once did.

The US is seeking supremacy elsewhere - algorithmic adversary modeling, predictive analytics, and adaptive scenario simulation to anticipate, shape, and, if necessary, outmaneuver opponents in political and military "gray zones" as well as open conflict.

Theory of Mind Warfare Advantages

• Pace & Complexity: Modern battlefields blend information, cyber, economic, and kinetic operations. AI-driven systems offer an edge in parsing this complexity and accelerating the decision loop, enabling more adaptive and precise responses—far faster than traditional command structures alone can manage.

• Red Line Management: As conflicts brush up against escalation thresholds (nuclear, regional, or domestic-political), decision-makers must test boundaries without inadvertently crossing them. Predictive tools allow strategists to simulate outcomes, calibrate messaging, and “push the line” while minimizing catastrophic missteps.

• Deterrence & Shaping: The aim is less about destruction and more about influencing adversaries’ perceptions, decision timelines, and threat assessments—using information dominance and rapid feedback to keep the upper hand.

• War? What War?: Perhaps best of all, Theory of the Mind warfare leaves the adversary in a state of uncertainty. If Americans knew FOR SURE we were under attack and BY WHOM during the Covid hysteria, how would we have responded? Even Russia, despite red lines being crossed repeatedly, still considers itself not at war.

The New Weapons of Warfare

We are seeing the emergence of military ecosystems where software platforms like those developed by Palantir and defense partners serve as digital backbones for the DARPA "theory of mind" concept.

The company leading this new weapons system revolution is Palantir. Their Maven system has been deployed by the IDF and is known to have been used in Gaza. In all likelihood, it was used in Lebanon and Iran as well.

Palantir's Maven integrates satellite imagery, geolocation, communications intercepts, and other sensor data into a unified analysis platform. It enables real-time adversary modeling, target selection, and campaign simulation—crucially, using AI to predict responses and ripple effects well beyond the immediate area of operations.

During the PLANDEMIC Palantir’s Gotham and Foundry platforms were vital in integrating demographic, health, and behavioral data for agencies like the CDC, providing not only epidemiological tracking but also feedback on the public’s response to evolving guidelines and restrictions.

Since Trump came into office, the DoD doubled its contract with Palantir to nearly $1.3b. ICE signed a deal with Palantir to develop a real-time platform for tracking migrants inside the US. Palantir also signed deals with DHS, Social Security Administration, and the IRS to centralize data platforms and expand Palantir Foundry's use.

Where's this all going?

And most important, Are we still the adversary?

The Digital Control Grid: Hidden in Plain Sight

America's digital control grid wasn't built overnight. It wasn't constructed in secret underground bunkers by shadowy figures. It was assembled piece by piece, in broad daylight, marketed as progress, convenience, and most powerfully – as patriotism.

The genius of this system is in its branding. Surveillance becomes "efficiency." Digital ID becomes "sovereignty." Compliance becomes "freedom." And we're witnessing this transformation accelerate before our eyes.

Stage 1 - COVID: The Stress Test That Succeeded

Before we had DOGE, before tokenized finance, before digital ID mandates – we had COVID. Looking back, it's clear the pandemic served as more than a public health crisis.

COVID was our collective beta test. It proved how quickly Americans would accept previously unthinkable restrictions when wrapped in the language of safety and science:

• Contact tracing normalized location tracking

• Vaccine passports conditioned us to health-based access control

• Remote work pushed millions deeper into monitored digital ecosystems

• Emergency stimulus payments tested direct government-to-citizen transfers with conditions attached

The stress test delivered clear results: with enough fear, the public will not just accept containment – they'll demand it.

Stage 2: Chaos, Plus, The Fusion of Power, Data, and Identity

While most Americans were distracted by culture wars and political theater, the Treasury Department quietly revolutionized our financial infrastructure:

• Tokenized money market funds and Treasury bonds moved to permissioned blockchains

• New regulatory frameworks required identity verification for all digital asset transactions

• Financial platforms embedded biometric checks as standard procedure

• Early programmable restrictions began limiting what users could purchase

• REAL ID became linked to financial services access

• Mass Migration - Border chaos creates public demand: "We need to know who is here and who belongs."

  Digital ID is pitched as the only rational solution:

  • To determine who votes

  • Who gets benefits

  • Who works legally

  But the system doesn’t just verify migrants—it enrolls everyone.

No sweeping legislation was required. The system simply changed its terms of service, and millions of transactions began flowing through new, highly controlled channels.

Stage 3 - DOGE: Efficiency as Control

The Department of Government Efficiency represents the cornerstone of America's control infrastructure. Framed as a crusade against waste and inefficiency, DOGE became the federal integration point for a web of surveillance technologies:

• The Genius Act incentivized AI, biometric ID, and federated data standards

• REAL ID enforcement created the foundation for universal biometric enrollment

• Palantir's IRS integration enabled real-time behavioral analysis of financial data

• DOGE's cross-agency data fabric connected previously siloed information systems

This isn't some far-fetched conspiracy. These systems have already been deployed, according to investigations by mainstream publications like Wired. The new infrastructure doesn't just observe past behavior – it predicts and penalizes future actions.

AI, sensors, and cross-agency and private data fabric: The Predictive Loop

Modern control systems don't just watch – they anticipate:

• Donate to an unapproved organization? Trigger a tax review.

• Speak with someone on a watchlist? Watch your credit availability tighten.

• Attend a flagged event? Your social profile gets marked across agencies.

• Subscribe to certain newsletters? Silent classification for enhanced monitoring.

• Shop for unusual combinations of items? AI flags you for human review.

• Travel outside your established patterns? Service access slows or stops.

This creates a system of preemptive enforcement – where your digital footprint doesn't just reflect your behavior, it predicts and restricts it before any law is broken.

The Control Stack: Layer by Layer

The full infrastructure has been assembled with remarkable efficiency:

How This Will Shape Your Daily Life

The control grid doesn't manifest as storm troopers at your door. It appears as friction in everyday activities:

Don't expect riots in the streets. Expect delayed flights, declined transactions, and "technical difficulties" that somehow only affect certain people.

Global Economic Restructuring

Economic turbulence provides perfect cover for embedding control mechanisms deeper into our infrastructure:

• Supply chain disruptions justify digital tracking and AI deployment

• Defense Department assumes control over critical production

• Executive orders and emergency declarations bypass normal legislative processes

• Financial distress creates acceptance of programmable economic controls

• A new monetary order emerges with government-controlled digital currencies

Red, White and Blue Technocracy

The irony is rich. The very system many Americans fear from global organizations is being built right here at home – just with stars and stripes wrapping.

What Comes Next

Most Americans won't realize the system is fully operational until:

• Payments start bouncing for unexplained reasons

• Biometric ID becomes required for basic services

• Social scores visibly impact credit and access

• Dissent receives quiet punishment through cascading inconveniences

The future isn't coming – it's here. The infrastructure is deployed. The systems are running. The only question remaining is how tightly the controls will be applied, and to whom.

Moving Forward

Efficiency is the new compliance. Security is the new control. Patriotism is the new packaging. The control grid wasn't built by foreign enemies or alien overlords – it was constructed by our own institutions, with our tax dollars, often with our enthusiastic support.

Understanding this reality is the first step toward navigating it. The second is recognizing that these systems, while powerful, are not omnipotent. There are always gaps, exceptions, and workarounds.

But most importantly, we must acknowledge our own role in constructing this reality. Through our acceptance of convenience over privacy, security over liberty, and comfort over principle, we've helped build the very cage that now surrounds us.

The most effective prison is one where the inmates believe they're free. The digital control grid makes this a conceivable reality.

It’s merely a thought experiment, but my research shows that the mechanisms are already or soon will be in place. What comes next? I don’t know, but it’s better to be prepared.

It’s a beautiful day here in Uruguay. I hope you all have a wonderful weekend surrounded by people you love.

Best,

Matt Smith

Maxim is 19 now. He’s been working the program for two years. At some point, not long ago, I couldn’t help but notice - he’d changed. He’s learned a lot of skills. He’s become more knowledgeable about all topics - history, philosophy, and science. He’s learned how to build adult relationships. He’s found mentors. He’s learned how to successfully interact with the world and how to independently take on AND conquer new challenges.

He’s still a young man with a lot to learn, but sometime within the last year he made the transition from boy to man. I can’t pinpoint precisely when or how it happened. But, it did happen.

As his father, there’s never been anything more gratifying than witnessing this monumental transition.

Maxim is the groundbreaker. And with the book, we will lay out a specific path other young men can follow to accomplish the same kind of things as Maxim. The aim is to help young men become competent, confident, and dangerous.

Today, I’d like to share a conversation I had with my friend about The Preparation. You’ll hear us discuss the problems young men face following the traditional path, the main question they should seek to answer, and what they can do to put themselves on a path to fulfilling success.

Our goal is to have the book published within the next 90 days.

Is there a young man in your life who might benefit from these ideas? If so, I’d love to hear about it.

Leave a comment

P.S. You can subscribe to Maxim’s substack and witness his progress through The Preparation for yourself here:

And, if you don’t already, subscribe to Mike Farris’ excellent podcast here:

Best,

Matt Smith

Michael Farris interviewed me for his Coffee and a Mike podcast recently. We discussed the election, political saviors, virtue, and we had a detailed discussion about the education program I'm developing with Doug Casey and my son called The Preparation.

For those interested in skipping to specific topics, here are some timestamps:

Education & Young People:

[00:47:00] - Detailed discussion of "The Preparation" program and how it's helping Max develop practical skills and character

[00:54:00] - Be, Do, & Have. How focusing on being and doing leads to better outcomes than focusing on having

[00:57:00] - Why asking "who do you want to be?" is more important than "what do you want to do?"

Current Events & Politics:

[00:19:00] - Discussion about the recent election and why 88 million eligible voters chose not to participate

[00:24:00] - Analysis of how formerly anti-state voters have embraced the system again

[01:13:00] - Thoughts on debt slavery and how it traps young people

Practical Philosophy:

[00:26:00] - The importance of frontier virtues and personal responsibility

[00:31:00] - Why focusing on local action matters more than national politics

[01:11:00] - Discussion about debt and why it's "stealing from your future self"

Family & Society:

[01:20:00] - Thoughts on decline in birth rates and what it really means

[01:29:00] - Discussion about raising daughters vs sons

[01:34:00] - Why family responsibility is actually the path to fulfillment

For those who enjoy Mike's work as much as I do, he accepts support through Venmo at @CoffeeandaMike. He's doing some of the most thoughtful interviews out there, and I encourage you to support his work if you find value in it. [FYI - I sent him $500 after our conversation].

A book about The Preparation is in the works - Doug is back in Uruguay next week and we'll be working on it together with Max. More updates on that soon.

As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts & feedback about these topics.

Best,

Matt

Our goal with The Phyle is to focus on solutions. To make progress, we must clearly articulate the problem.

Amidst this chaotic phase, it's impossible to predict even the near future. The best we can do is form a hypothesis and orient our actions around it.

Today I'm going to lay out my process and conclusions. I hope that they will be as useful to you as they have been to me.

Assumptions

We've been taught that assumptions are bad. They make an "ass" out of "u" and "me". But that's not always true. I developed a set of assumptions about the future to build a framework of understanding. I use that framework to identify what IS in my control and what is NOT in my control.

The things outside our control, we can stop worrying about. They're not up to us. Instead, our concern is what IS in our control and all our energy and resources should be dedicated there.

Before I get to the assumptions I'm operating under. Let me say - They are assumptions not predictions. I could be wrong. Hell - I hope I'm wrong. But with nearly three years of the "Great Reset" under our belt, I bet you'll agree - they have merit.

None of this should be taken as a blackpill. No problem can be solved without sober identification and acceptance. That’s all we’re doing here.

With that in mind, here are the 11 assumptions I’m using today to guide my actions.

1. Less Freedom of movement. There will be more efforts to restrict and regulate our freedom of movement. From Vax passports to increased visa requirements and 15-min city initiatives - a grid is being constructed to regulate our freedom of movement.

2. A CBDC is coming. Cash will be eliminated. How restrictive it may end up being, I don't know. But, CBDC is a foregone conclusion. Timing? BIS publishes estimates of 14 retail CBDC and 9 wholesale by 2030. And there are indications that the major economies are working to be ready to deploy by 2025.

3. The digital ID is already here. Biometrics are the future. If you have a government issued ID associated with your photograph, you are in the system already. How the ID is deployed and enforced is the only question.
   

4. GFC 2.0 and/or the Greater Depression. Timing is hard. But, can any thinking person imagine how the outcome can be avoided altogether. Simon Hunt suggests a market pullback of up to 30% between now and early 2024 followed by a pump and a deflationary wipeout in 2025.

5. Most of my financial assets will disappear at some point. Inflation, bank bail-in, market wipe out, or Great Taking. I don't know the cause, but I assume physical assets are where I need to be, ultimately.

6. Increasing crime & disorder. You’ve seen the videos. Whether, driven by economic desperation, mass migration, the inversion of law, or in the name of social justice. Crime and disorder will grow and lead to greater physical threats to our lives and property from our fellow man. This makes urban environments, especially but not exclusively, a real risk.

7. Supply constraints are increasing around all commodities - from food to energy. Tight supplies are showing up everywhere. Live Cattle, long dormant, hit an all-time high recently. Oil Prices are up 30% in the last three months. 40% of Argentina’s wheat crop is in poor to fair condition and protectionist policies are on the rise globally.

8. WW3 is coming. A good case can be made that it's already begun. The Army War College recently published a study suggesting that the All Volunteer Force had reached the end of its useful life. With the military struggling with recruiting, conscription is likely at some point.

9. Censorship and Digital Control will enter a new phase. Deplatforming, de-banking, shadow banning, and social media account suspensions will increase. Centralized digital services of all kinds should be considered suspect and, very likely, dangerous to use in the future.

10. The US election - regardless of the outcome - is an inflection point and potentially a flash point. IF it happens, the outcome will not be accepted by half of the country. I've heard from more than one source, publicly and privately, that there may not be a 2024 election. Who knows? We can be sure of is that running up to and shortly after the election, things could get wild. In advance of the 2020 election we had Covid and BLM. Shortly after, J6 and state overreach. What will 2024 bring?

11. There is a war happening today. It's a war on us. The primary battleground is within the sphere of 5GW - informational/psychological. Where I've been wrong in the last three years, it's been in my assumption that kinetic coercion would be utilized. As we can see, much progress has been made in the Great Reset without the need for kinetic tactics. For most of this cycle, they will rely on this same approach. If/When we see a move toward kinetic force, we should be alarmed because we will have entered a new and more dangerous phase.

Do you disagree with any of my assumptions? Did I miss anything? Let me know.

I see all of the assumptions as “Out of my control”. They may not come to pass, but whether they do or not is not up to me. Of course, I’ll continue to speak out against them. If enough of us do, it may help. Possibly.

Since these unfortunate outcomes are out of my control, I don’t worry about them. And free from the burden of unsolvable problems, I can fully devote my energy and resources to what IS within my control.

Members of The Phyle have been doing exactly that over the last year. Much progress has been made. And there’s much more we can do. Let’s focus there.

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Listen for more details.

If nothing else, please check out the section on family which starts here: 1:21:16. I’d love to hear your feedback on the ideas discussed here.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro

00:13 Where do you draw the line?

04:08 What’s Doug Gonna Do?

04:39 Ethical Clarity

05:49 The Frog in Boiling water

07:17 Australia

08:18 When will the financial system collapse?

10:26 Are we officially out of the eye of the hurricane?

12:22 The Mexico Conversation

15:30 Doug’s favorite music

17:53 Silver in the past and future

20:43 Familiar with Corbett?

22:19 What’s the first thing Doug notices when in a new country?

28:54 Are People suspicious of wealth now?

31:53 The Man in the High Castle

34:23 My job is mandating the xx what should I do?

37:15 investing in private placement real estate deals

41:49 Blackrock & Goldman

43:11 What’s happening in Uruguay?

46:56 Views on Singapore?

50:44 What about Seasteading?

53:42 New country in cyberspace??

55:32 El Salvador Libertarian paradise?

56:43 what made Hong Kong, Singapore and Dubai so successful…

1:01:59 Finance jobs in rural areas

1:04:16 The risks of being an employee

1:04:56 Talk is Cheap and ethics matter

1:08:32 China and Taiwan

1:13:03 Doug’s Favorite FORMER CR analyst

1:16:56 Founders VS. Suits

1:18:49 Proof the Suits are in charge

1:21:16 Doug’s view on Marriage

1:24:36 Family is an institution

1:27:22 Polygamy?

1:28:33 Problems of a nuclear family

1:32:44 Why we cast aside elders?

Personally, I like both gold and bitcoin. Which is better? That depends and, frankly, the answer is irrelevant for our discussion today. What matters is the key characteristic they both share. Decentralization.

In this, Part 3 of our “Thrive Strategy” series, I make the case for decentralization. And not just the easy stuff like buying bitcoin. No, today, I make the case for disconnecting from as many critical centralized systems as possible. And, while you still can.

If you haven’t seen Part 1 or Part 2 yet, I encourage you to take a look. What follows will make a lot more sense with some context.

Centralized Systems Dominate

Today our lives are dominated by centralized, complex systems. Those systems are poised to sting all of us who’ve come to rely on them for… well, virtually everything.

But, maybe you’re the independent sort and have this topic covered? If so, I wonder what your plan is for:

• Food (if, for instance, Whole Foods couldn’t keep the shelves stocked or due to your beliefs ‘your kind’ aren’t welcome there anymore?)

• Energy (When the power grid is attacked or simply fails. Like last year when the US grid logged 1.33BILLION outage hours.)

• Transportation - When commercial travel systems require credentials you don’t possess?

• Income - When your employer gives you an ultimatum, “Take part in a medical experiment or your fired.”

Dependence on complex or centralized systems pose under-appreciated risks. And actions taken to diversify/decentralize your dependence reduce that risk.

It also produces many new and unexpected benefits.

Overly focusing on the downside risks we face leads us to a very dull life. I am concerned with thriving not just surviving. If you’re with me on this, than you understand that we need to focus on both upside and downside. We need to reduce risks while seeking out opportunities and upside.

The good news is: Decentralization can do both.

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Globalization and Decentralization

Globalism was an act of decentralization.

Rather than being restrained by the resources, production, legal framework, and talent pool of the local population in a particular geographic area. Global decentralization launched waves of innovation and economic resilience.

The free(ish) movement of goods, capital, education, and human talent opened up huge opportunities for billions of people. New companies were started, new technologies discovered and deployed lifting billions out of poverty and increasing the standard of living everywhere.

The Switcheroo

Perhaps it was the inclusion of China into the WTO? Or, perhaps it was the corporate rent-seekers? Or maybe it was simply an inevitable?

However it happened, globalization switched from a driver of decentralization (and the innovation it produces) into it's opposite - stifling centralization where efficiency and control dominate.

Today, government sanctioned International bodies provide central systems of governance for global trade. With the easy growth gone, Corporations consolidate through mergers and expand earnings through financial shenanigans.

Almost everywhere, efficiency driven concepts like "Just in time inventory" and "outsource-everything" dominate decision making.

With this Switcheroo all innovation became “financial innovation” and short-sighted rent-seekers took the helm happy to build layers upon layers of complexity.

In a complex system, unknowable risks take root. These risks grow and overlap and compound over time. Eventually, a butterfly flapping its wings in Taiwan results in supply chain carnage everywhere.

The Short-Sighted Idea of Efficiency

Is outsourcing bad? No, of course not. But, there are tradeoffs. And the current leadership at the helm of governments and major corporations either lack the ability to weigh those tradeoffs - or they plan to be pull the ripcord on their golden parachutes before the tradeoff risks hit home.

Here’s a few examples of tradeoffs now hitting home:

• Ford's August sales of its new vehicles declined by 33.1% from a year earlier in the U.S. due to an ongoing global shortage of semiconductor chips.1

• Overwhelmed hospitals? Covid gets the blame for hospitals being full. But, in fact, US hospitals are short of nurses in part because 30% of registered nurses are "travel nurses"2. Hospitals, pursuing the efficiency dogma, outsourced not just the janitorial services, but even their most critical jobs3 - Nurses. Short-sighted administrators embraced the idea thinking that they could easily hire temporary nurses when needed.

• An old business - railroads, got in on the short-sighted game too. “After railroads had spent six years shedding employees in order to tickle Wall Street analysts and pump up stock prices”4 they now find themselves desperate for qualified staff.

• The production of all medicines, from complex therapies to common pharmaceuticals like painkillers and antibiotics, relies on secure access to active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) Unfortunately, A recent study revealed that over 80% of APIs for essential medicines have no US manufacturing source.

Why do we outsource everything? Anthony Sardella, senior research advisor and author of a recent study5 on United States reliance on foreign sources for APIs says simply, “the economics did not lend itself” to manufacturing within the States.

My guess? The economics ‘didn’t lend themselves’ to building a US chip plant or planning for and investing in a skilled workforce either.

In the Uber-era of anything you want on demand, we fell into an obvious trap - the foolish notion that tradeoffs don’t really exist. It’s as if we thought everything was Upside.

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Political Diversification

The greatest centralized risk we face is Government. Doug Casey came to this conclusion In the 1970’s and it’s why he wrote The International Man.

The ‘rona lockdowns showed us governments will set aside precedent, legality, civility, rational thinking, and even tax revenue in a grab for power as soon as the opportunity arrises.

If it wasn’t clear before, it is now - it’s important to be diversified beyond one political jurisdiction. Doug has long spoken of the benefits of international diversification. One should, ideally, earn money in one country, while being a legal resident in another, a citizen of a third, and a tourist yet another. It could mean having bank accounts outside your primary country of residence and a bolt hole in a place you like spending your vacation.

Diversifying one’s political risk applies domestically too..

As lockdowns kicked in, Doug commented about the many wealthy New Yorkers who headed for the hills of Aspen where the rules were less draconian. It wasn’t just Aspen that experienced an influx of people seeking a form of political asylum. Joe Rogan and thousands of other Californians escaped to Austin, TX and Miami, FL.

After the riots in 2020, people moved out of big cities to pro-gun rural areas where freedom of movement was still permissible.

If there is one risk we should most seriously consider today, it’s political risk. And, as much as possible, we should diversify and decentralize those risks.

That might mean obtaining legal residency in Mexico as a backup, relocating to a better state/county, or pulling up stakes altogether and moving to a new country.

Here’s a short and very incomplete list of how the government centralization stifles innovation and creates risk.

• Regulations
  Building and zoning laws (housing shortages)
  Professional licensing
  Limits to trade

• K-12 Public education (Indoctrinate the population)

• Interest Rates (Controlling the price of money)

• Monopoly Power with regard to anything it chooses (Money comes to mind)

• Misallocation of “public” funds (bridges to nowhere, disastrous wars)

• Destructive financial incentives
  Mortgage Guarantees
  Student Loans
  Too Big to Fail Bailouts

• Taxation

• Criminalizing behavior previously classified as legal

• Patents and Intellectual Property

The centralization of government power is the greatest threat you’ll face in the coming months and years. Taking action is a no-brainer if you’re in a position to do so.

And remember, moving overseas isn’t the only way to reduce and diversify your political risk.

Next up….

We’ll discuss specific areas where you can reduce your dependence on centralized systems… from money, to food, to education, and communications. Stay tuned.

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I’ve been asking myself these same questions. After much dialogue with like-minded folks, I’ve formulated a strategy. It’s the strategy I’m using to build a specific plan of action to thrive as best I can, no matter what happens.

The 5-Part "Thrive Strategy"

1. Maintain a Strong Mental Frame

2. Rational, Personal Risk Assessment

3. Decentralization

4. De-leverage

5. Build Institutions

In the prior post, I discussed Part 1 of the “Thrive Strategy”. What a Mental Frame is and why it’s critical for people to have a Strong Frame right now. If you missed that post, please check it out now.

Today, I’ll discuss Part 2: Rational, Personal Risk Assessment. But first, let’s address how the overall “Thrive” strategy should be applied.

YOUR Personal Plan

It’s important to keep in mind that the 5-part “Thrive Strategy” outlined above is just the foundation. On top of that foundation, you need to build your own plan. Your situation is different than mine. So, when you apply the “Thrive Strategy”, you may come up with a completely different plan than I would.

While the “Thrive Strategy” can be universal, each personal plan will be unique. Where you live right now, your sources of income, assets, and whether or not you have a family are just a few factors that must be included in your personal plan.

I’ll offer suggestions and ideas where I can, but the plan must be your own.

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Rational Risk Assessment

What problem are you trying to solve? It’s not a trivial question and the answer is unlikely to be simple either. The important part of this step in our 5-part “Thrive Strategy” is to eliminate the generalized worry and fear and replace those with a sober-minded and specific summary of the risks you face.

1. List the things we’re worried about

2. Use the stoic practice of negative visualization to best understand those worries - What is the worst case scenario?

3. How likely is this to happen in the next 3 months, Next year, next 5 years.

What you end up with is a list of problems to solve and a priority list for which should be solved first.

Here’s an example.

As you can see in the table below, I laid out 5 specific risks/worries that I have related to the state of affairs (as I see them) in September 2021.

I then summed up a plausible worst-case scenario for me personally and ranked each risk on a scale of 1-5 for likelihood to occur within set time frames. google sheet here

Scenario Planning

Now that we’ve got our list, what do we do with it? This is where Scenario Planning comes in handy. Scenario Planning is a methodology developed in the 1950’s at the RAND Corporation. Since then, versions of Scenario Planning have been widely adopted by corporations, think-tanks, governments, and organizations like The Bill And Melinda Gates Foundation.

Perhaps you’ve heard of Event 201? In 2019 the Gates Foundation and John Hopkins University hosted a scenario planning event around the emergence of a virus which caused a global plandemic.

You can watch the event on YouTube. Here’s their highlight reel for a summary. The important part is that they imagine a potential future event and then walk through what various parties would likely do in response as events unfolded.

Whether event 201 was a dry run of the Covid19 pandemic. Or if it was simply a planning event for what occurred - makes no difference for our purposes.

Why You Need to ‘Scenario Plan’

Scenario Planning is particularly useful under the circumstances we find ourselves in today. Specifically, when…

• Uncertainty is high relative to one’s ability to predict or adjust.

• Too many costly surprises have occurred in the past.

• There is a need to improve the quality of strategic thinking

• One has experienced significant change or is about to.

• There are strong differences of opinion, with multiple opinions having merit.

• Your competitors (adversaries) are using scenario planning.

Scenario Planning in a Nutshell

By identifying basic trends and uncertainties, Scenario Planning helps you to construct a workable model of the future which compensates for the usual errors in decision making—overconfidence and tunnel vision.

The key challenge is to separate aspects you are very confident about (and willing to bet the farm on) from those that are largely uncertain.

With Scenario Planning, it’s important that you always keep these key questions in mind:

• What are the relevant trends?

• What are we very confident about (willing to bet the farm on)?

• What are we uncertain about?

• Where might I be wrong?

There are loads of resources out there on Scenario Planning.

For our purposes here, however, let’s narrow the focus considerably: How does Scenario Planning apply to our assessment of risk?

Scenario Planning as a Sanity Check

When talking about perceived risks/worries, Scenario Planning gives us a way to validate our assessment as rational or not. Not only do we need to know if they’re rational, we need to know if our assessment of the timeframe makes sense.

As an example from above: my worry about new lockdowns. Is it rational? If so, is my time frame rational? Or is it just a fear-driven concern of mine?

My answers aren’t complete, but they should give you a sense of how to apply these questions to your current perceived risks:

What are the relevant trends?

a.) lockdowns are increasing in parts of the world (AU, NZ, Vietnam, etc. etc.)    
b.) politicians have learned that lockdowns are useful tools to exert more control
c.) a certain percentage of the population wants MORE restrictions and it’s not clear that that percentage is in decline.
d.) Fall & Winter are ahead. During these periods, one would expect illness to spread (regardless of the particular illness).
e.) as demonstrated in Israel and elsewhere, high Jab rates do not result in stopping the spread of the virus.
f.) Security over freedom. Americans have taken the crackdown on civil liberties like whipped dogs.

What am I very confident about (willing to bet the farm on)?

a.) C19 isn’t going away anytime soon. If not in reality, than in the minds of citizens and politicians.    
b.) A large percentage of the population are demagogic on this topic and unwilling to change their minds.
c.) Institutions and leaders in government and business can’t be trusted as sources of information or even good faith.

What am I uncertain about?

a.) is there any state or country that’ll be less immune to this threat?    
b.) if lockdowns start again, will they ever go away?
c.) timing.

Where might I be wrong?

a.) if there were a landmark legal case which specifically forbids officials from enforcing lockdowns    
b.) maybe ‘Red States’ like Florida, continue to fight the trend?

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Knowing is Half the Battle

Without a rational risk assessment we can’t begin to formulate workable solutions. And solutions are exactly what we’re all in need of right now.

So, take the time to write down all the specific risks that worry you right now. Then run them through the Scenario Planning sanity check to make sure the risks are both rational and that you know which need to be acted on first.

Next up - we start focusing on solutions with Part 3 - Decentralization.

Stay tuned. And in the meantime, all feedback is welcome. Please share your comments below.

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What comes next? It’s hard to say, but I’m of the opinion it’s going to be challenging for all of us.

I’m not alone in this concern. I see the suffering in friends, loved ones, and interacting with viewers of the Doug Casey’s Take podcast. The suffering manifests as anger, fear, depression, and projection.

For some this is a “blackpill” moment. Understandably confused and afraid, it’s easy to lose hope. But, losing hope would be a terrible mistake.

It’s a War for Your Mind, Really

The battle we face today is a battle for your mind.

As a student of persuasion, it seems to me that the battle is intentional. Why? Because psychological warfare done right is subtle enough to go by unnoticed. It’s tools are distraction, division, confusion and isolation. Do any of those sound familiar?

Many of you have seen the excellent video produced by the Academy of ideas which walked through the causes of Mass Psychosis. If you haven’t seen it, do yourself a favor and check it out.

In a real crisis there’s a good chance that we’d come together. But, from where I sit, that’s not the goal. The goal is compliance.

Psychological Warfare

If an enemy attacked us with a missile strike or a land invasion. We’d know:

1. That we were being attacked

2. Who the enemy was

3. How to defend ourselves

But, when the battleground is your mind, you might not even realize you’re being attacked and if you do, you’re likely to identify the wrong enemy and formulate the wrong approach for defending yourself.

The world of 2019 seems a distant memory now. And what is emerging looks more like a dystopian novel than life in “the before times” as Doug Casey calls it.

How to Thrive Despite All Else

I’ve formulated a 5 part strategy for Thriving in this period of chaos. Over the course of the coming days, I’ll discuss each part individually.

The first part is foundational. Without it, nothing else will matter. And yet, in my experience it’s poorly understood and, thus, easy to underestimate.

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MAINTAINING A STRONG MENTAL FRAME

Your Frame is the way you see yourself in relation to the world around you. It contains your beliefs, your identity, and your attitude (among other things). The stronger that frame is, the less likely you’ll be subsumed by the propaganda whether that be of the blackpill or of the hopium variety.

A Strong Frame offers other advantages too. Frankly, most people have weak frames. In “the before times” as Doug refers to them, a strong Frame made it easier to find success in all areas of life. Great artists, entrepreneurs, and leaders of all stripes have STRONG FRAMES.

Not long ago I discussed Frame with my friend and business partner, Gary Young. We talked about it in terms of a Tool of Persuasion and it is. More importantly for today, a Strong Frame can immunizes you from manipulation.

You can listen to the conversation on YouTube

Or you can listen to it on Spotify here:

In the coming days, I’ll discuss the other strategies. But, here’s the complete list:

5 Strategies to Thrive Despite All Else

1. Strong Mental Frame

2. Rational, personal risk assessment

3. Decentralization

4. De-leverage

5. Build Institutions

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If you produce a newsletter today, we'd love to know about it and share our idea with you. Maybe it'll turn into nothing. But, then again.... It could be big.

Tell us about your newsletter at the form below. Then let’s talk.

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Matt

According to Doug Casey, “Gary is a Genuine Genius who has read more books than anyone I know and certainly written more books than anyone I know.”

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Chapters:

00:00:00 Introduction
2:18 History of conservatism
7:41 Worst Presidents in History
11:16 Smartest Presidents
13:04 Next 10 years?
20:35 Nisbet
26:22 Modern Monetary Theory
31:58 What to do?
39:25 Timing & future lockdowns
44:25 Crack up, boom
49:25 what does money buy you?
55:43 Feel good money
1:03:32 Closing remarks

It scared the shit out of me.

The situation described in the book was so dire and so unexpected I could hardly believe it was true.

Ted Koppel, the long-time host of ABC’s late night news program, Nightline, leveraged…

Read more